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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF
MEXICO...STRONG RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL STATES OF MICHOACAN
AND COLIMA... 

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS.  A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN
BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO
MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.  AT 8 PM
PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN
COAST.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING
THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS.  THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
  
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...104.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC