ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.7N 107.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.3N 111.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC