ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 97.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 97.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.2N 98.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.8N 100.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.9N 104.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 97.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC