ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0200 UTC AND A REPORT OF 37 KT FROM SHIP D5XH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/7. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS. THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH FORECAST JOHN TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TO THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SHOW JOHN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS DIFFERS BY ALMOST 180 DEGREES FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE UKMET AND EUROPEAN MODELS APPEAR TO PROVIDE THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTIONS BY SHOWING THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WEST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY ASSUMING JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITHIN A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN NORTHEASTWARD AND ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH JOHN FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. SHOULD JOHN RE-EMERGE BACK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST DUE TO COLD WATERS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 26.3N 112.1W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 03/1800Z 27.1N 112.7W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/0600Z 28.1N 113.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/1800Z 29.2N 114.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 05/0600Z 29.9N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 30.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC