ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS ERODED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...BUT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE INTACT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF LA PAZ. DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT FAR INLAND THE INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8. JOHN IS BEING STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD. THE GFDL AND GFS MADE A RATHER LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND NOW INDICATE THAT JOHN COULD EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE UKMET ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD BUT KEEPS JOHN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. DESPITE THE LARGE CHANGES IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS JUST RIGHT OR EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS JOHN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS...SINCE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OR EVEN BRIEFLY OVER THE BAY OF LA PAZ TODAY. THEREAFTER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS JOHN A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF JOHN. IF THE HURRICANE REMAINS EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT COULD ALSO WEAKEN FASTER OR EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 24.2N 110.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 110.8W 75 KT...NEAR COAST 24HR VT 03/0600Z 26.1N 111.8W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/1800Z 27.2N 112.8W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.7N 116.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC