ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING. LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR ANIMATION INDICATES THE EXISTENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT JOHN HAS OUT RUN THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE AND NOW HAS MOVED WITHIN 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...JOHN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/11. JOHN REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CLUSTER INTO TWO GROUPS. THE GFDL...NAVY GFDN...AND GFS INDICATE A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE UKMET ALL SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS HEDGED CLOSELY TO A CONSENSUS OF THE SECOND DYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTER...WHICH INDICATES A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3. BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.4N 107.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 110.3W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.2N 111.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 24.8N 113.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 26.0N 119.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 26.0N 124.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC