ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT JOHN HAS AN OBSCURED EYE AND A DISTINCT EYEWALL...ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE. THE CUYUTLAN MEXICO RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE AS WELL AS RAIN BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 115 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 110 KT. JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOHN AT 1800 UTC...AND...IF NECESSARY...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MADE IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY THREE TO BORDERLINE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE DIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WITH LAND. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN 72 HOURS...JOHN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND STEADY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM SHOULD OCCUR BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12. JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A WEST- NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS WITH JOHN CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN FORECASTING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND EITHER TAKE JOHN ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OR REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH MAINTAIN ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO KEEP JOHN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 19.5N 106.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 20.7N 107.6W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 22.8N 110.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.3N 111.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC