ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE AND AN OBSCURED EYE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO APPARENT ON A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1156 UTC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AND 75 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF TWO AND IS SET AT 70 KT. JOHN IS NOW THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. JOHN IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES JOHN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LATER PERIODS...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS JOHN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF IT'S TRACK FORECAST TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THE HURRICANE OVER WATER THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE IN DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THE GFDL MODEL ANTICIPATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE FURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 99.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W 105 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W 105 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC