ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TAFB PROVIDING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 OR 35 KT AND SAB GIVING 3.0 OR 45 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE TWO AT 40 KT AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 NMI IN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE. SCATTER IN THE POSITION ESTIMATES HAS DECREASED AS ALL AGENCIES ARE WITHIN 25 NMI OF EACH OTHER. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS CORROBORATED WITH A TRMM PASS AT 1456Z WITH WELL-PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BANDS. MOTION IS NOW MORE ACCURATELY ASSESSED AT 285/7...RATHER THAN THE NORTHWEST TRACK INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOHN SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JOHN'S MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AS BOTH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ACCURATELY ANALYZED JOHN. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUGGEST CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS ALL BRING THE SYSTEM UP TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWN HERE SUGGESTS JOHN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES THAT JOHN MAY REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SOONER THAN INDICATED. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY DAY FIVE DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...EXCEPT TO SHOW FASTER WEAKENING AT DAY FIVE. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF JOHN'S TRACK TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...INTERESTS FROM ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 13.4N 96.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.1N 99.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.2N 103.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC