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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 229N 1205W 34 69   4(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 12 229N 1205W 50  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 12 229N 1205W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 231N 1218W 34 10  14(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 24 231N 1218W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 231N 1218W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 232N 1232W 34  X   6( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 232N 1232W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 232N 1232W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 232N 1247W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 48 232N 1247W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 232N 1247W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     30      25      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
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