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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 216N 1175W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 216N 1175W 50 70   5(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 12 216N 1175W 64 36   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 24 220N 1184W 34 63  15(78)   2(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 24 220N 1184W 50 14  22(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 24 220N 1184W 64  3   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 36 221N 1194W 34 18  25(43)   6(49)   2(51)   1(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 36 221N 1194W 50  1   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 221N 1194W 64  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 220N 1206W 34  5  10(15)   8(23)   3(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 48 220N 1206W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 220N 1206W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 216N 1222W 34  3   2( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 72 216N 1222W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 216N 1222W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 210N 1240W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 96 210N 1240W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 210N 1240W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     55      40      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC