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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO   50 59   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
ISLA SOCORRO   64 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 16  45(61)   5(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
ISLA CLARION   50  1  21(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 187N 1124W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 187N 1124W 50 86   8(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 187N 1124W 64 49  19(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 
 24 199N 1144W 34 16  73(89)   6(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 199N 1144W 50  2  63(65)   9(74)   1(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 24 199N 1144W 64  X  37(37)  12(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
 36 207N 1160W 34  2  40(42)  37(79)   6(85)   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 36 207N 1160W 50  X  12(12)  37(49)   7(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 36 207N 1160W 64  X   3( 3)  24(27)   6(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 48 213N 1173W 34  X   9( 9)  40(49)  17(66)   8(74)   1(75)   X(75)
 48 213N 1173W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)  15(35)   5(40)   1(41)   X(41)
 48 213N 1173W 64  X   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 220N 1192W 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  19(32)  15(47)   3(50)   X(50)
 72 220N 1192W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 72 220N 1192W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 225N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  15(29)   4(33)   X(33)
 96 225N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 96 225N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 225N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  14(23)   4(27)   X(27)
120 225N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
120 225N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    110    115     105      90      70      50      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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