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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 15  64(79)   8(87)   X(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  43(44)   8(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X  12(12)   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1  10(11)  35(46)  12(58)   5(63)   1(64)   X(64)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   1( 1)  16(17)  10(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 168N 1095W 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 168N 1095W 50 84   8(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 168N 1095W 64 33  18(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
 24 182N 1116W 34 13  72(85)   8(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 182N 1116W 50  1  59(60)  12(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 24 182N 1116W 64  X  25(25)  13(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 36 193N 1136W 34  2  22(24)  50(74)  10(84)   3(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 36 193N 1136W 50  X   5( 5)  42(47)  10(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 36 193N 1136W 64  X   1( 1)  21(22)   8(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
 48 203N 1153W 34  X   4( 4)  30(34)  30(64)  11(75)   1(76)   X(76)
 48 203N 1153W 50  X   X( X)  12(12)  24(36)   8(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 48 203N 1153W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 216N 1174W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)  24(48)   6(54)   1(55)
 72 216N 1174W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   2(23)   X(23)
 72 216N 1174W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
 
 96 230N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)   8(31)   1(32)
 96 230N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 96 230N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 240N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   2(16)
120 240N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
120 240N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     85      95      95      80      60      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN