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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  4  37(41)  30(71)   3(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   8( 8)  26(34)   3(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   4( 4)  27(31)  24(55)   8(63)   X(63)   X(63)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  17(26)   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 158N 1084W 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 158N 1084W 50 81   9(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 12 158N 1084W 64 15  10(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 24 171N 1105W 34 20  65(85)   7(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 171N 1105W 50  1  58(59)  11(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 24 171N 1105W 64  X  21(21)  10(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
 36 185N 1127W 34  2  18(20)  52(72)  11(83)   2(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 36 185N 1127W 50  X   3( 3)  42(45)  13(58)   1(59)   1(60)   X(60)
 36 185N 1127W 64  X   1( 1)  18(19)   9(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
 48 197N 1147W 34  X   2( 2)  26(28)  34(62)  14(76)   1(77)   X(77)
 48 197N 1147W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  28(35)  11(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 48 197N 1147W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   7(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 216N 1178W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  35(46)   7(53)   1(54)
 72 216N 1178W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   3(23)   X(23)
 72 216N 1178W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
 
 96 225N 1200W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  12(33)   1(34)
 96 225N 1200W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 96 225N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 230N 1225W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)
120 230N 1225W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
120 230N 1225W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      85      90      85      65      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC