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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)  30(33)  33(66)   7(73)   1(74)   X(74)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)   7(33)   1(34)   X(34)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)  30(56)   3(59)   1(60)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  21(26)   1(27)   1(28)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 141N 1060W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 141N 1060W 50 44  21(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 12 141N 1060W 64  4   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 24 151N 1083W 34 26  65(91)   4(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 151N 1083W 50  X  53(53)  13(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 24 151N 1083W 64  X  16(16)   9(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
 36 166N 1102W 34  1  32(33)  47(80)  10(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 36 166N 1102W 50  X   2( 2)  41(43)  12(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 36 166N 1102W 64  X   X( X)  17(17)   9(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 48 180N 1122W 34  X   3( 3)  28(31)  37(68)  14(82)   1(83)   X(83)
 48 180N 1122W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  30(35)  12(47)   1(48)   X(48)
 48 180N 1122W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 200N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  37(48)   9(57)   1(58)
 72 200N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)   1(25)
 72 200N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
 
 
 96 210N 1185W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  17(31)   1(32)
 96 210N 1185W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
 96 210N 1185W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 220N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)
120 220N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
120 220N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     70      80      90      85      70      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC