Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)  10(10)  36(46)  21(67)   1(68)   X(68)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  18(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  38(46)   6(52)   1(53)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   3(22)   X(22)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 136N 1046W 34 90   4(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 136N 1046W 50 13  17(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 12 136N 1046W 64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 147N 1066W 34 13  73(86)   6(92)   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 147N 1066W 50  X  36(36)  13(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 24 147N 1066W 64  X   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 159N 1087W 34  X  23(23)  52(75)  11(86)   2(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 36 159N 1087W 50  X   2( 2)  33(35)  12(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 159N 1087W 64  X   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 48 173N 1109W 34  X   1( 1)  22(23)  42(65)  14(79)   1(80)   X(80)
 48 173N 1109W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)  12(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 48 173N 1109W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 
 72 200N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  42(46)  12(58)   1(59)
 72 200N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   6(24)   1(25)
 72 200N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
 
 
 96 220N 1185W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  22(31)   3(34)
 96 220N 1185W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)
 96 220N 1185W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 240N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
120 240N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
120 240N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     60      70      80      85      75      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN