Tropical Storm ILEANA
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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ILEANA IS
SEPARATING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SIMLIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS
295/5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS ILEANA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL ITS
DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 24C ISOTHERM
TONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STEADY WEAKENING
FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 22.8N 119.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 22.9N 120.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 23.1N 121.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 23.2N 123.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/1800Z 23.2N 124.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
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