ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER...HOWEVER DATA-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 295/7...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE USUAL DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING THE CENTER IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND ILEANA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 22.8N 119.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 23.1N 120.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 23.4N 123.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 124.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC