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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA EAST OF THE
CENTER...HOWEVER DATA-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT
HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS ILEANA
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 295/7...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE USUAL DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING THE CENTER IN
INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND
ILEANA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 22.8N 119.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 23.1N 120.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 23.4N 123.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 124.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.5N 127.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC