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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006
 
AN EYE WAS STILL BARELY APPARENT AT 00Z...AND DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
WERE STILL 4.0 WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT
65 KT.  SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...SO ILEANA WILL PROBABLY
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY.  SSTS BENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE
NEAR 25 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE A STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS
310/6.  A TURN TO THE LEFT OR WEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE
EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT UNTIL
IT DISSIPATES IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 22.7N 118.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 119.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 23.2N 122.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC