ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ILEANA IS NOW WEAKENING IN EARNEST...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND T NUMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING WITH ILEANA ULTIMATELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. ILEANA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ACCORDINGLY...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW BY DAY 3...RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY...AND THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN AN OFFICIAL TRACK SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BEYOND DAY 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.5N 114.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.2N 116.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.4N 118.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.8N 119.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC