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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ILEANA IS NOW WEAKENING IN
EARNEST...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT AND IS BASED ON
A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND T NUMBERS FROM THE
VARIOUS AGENCIES. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING WITH ILEANA ULTIMATELY
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGRADATION OF THE
CLOUD SIGNATURE.
 
ILEANA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9.  GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
ACCORDINGLY...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED.  THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW BY DAY 3...RESULTING IN
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY...AND THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE SHALLOW
BAM TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST.  THIS RESULTS IN AN OFFICIAL TRACK
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE BEYOND DAY 3.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 20.5N 114.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.2N 116.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.4N 118.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.8N 119.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC