ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006 ILEANA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND QUITE SYMMETRIC. LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KT...I.E. A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...DURING WHICH TIME THE HURRICANE COULD ATTAIN CAT. 4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION...310/16... IS FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA. ACCORDINGLY...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS TRACK AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. LESS EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON THE GFS TRACK...AS THAT MODEL HAS A FAR TOO WEAK INITIALIZATION OF THE HURRICANE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN IN 4-5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.5N 110.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W 110 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W 115 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W 70 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC