Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006

ILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH
BETTER-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  ALSO...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
YIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AN 0308 UTC
SSM/I IMAGE SUGGESTED A WELL-ORGANIZED...AND PERHAPS
STRONGER...SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THERE IS NO OPERATIONALLY-ACCEPTED
TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY FROM SUCH IMAGERY.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...AT 45 KT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUCH AS SSTS... VERTICAL SHEAR...MOIST
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND INSTABILITY...ALL APPEAR TO BE
PROPITIOUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING UP TO 48 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 295/12.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS PREDICTS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  BY THAT TIME...IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT ILEANA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND NOT RESPOND
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 14.0N 105.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.3N 109.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 113.6W    90 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 119.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC