Tropical Storm ILEANA

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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006

ILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH
BETTER-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  ALSO...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
YIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AN 0308 UTC
SSM/I IMAGE SUGGESTED A WELL-ORGANIZED...AND PERHAPS
STRONGER...SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THERE IS NO OPERATIONALLY-ACCEPTED
TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY FROM SUCH IMAGERY.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...AT 45 KT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUCH AS SSTS... VERTICAL SHEAR...MOIST
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND INSTABILITY...ALL APPEAR TO BE
PROPITIOUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING UP TO 48 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 295/12.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS PREDICTS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  BY THAT TIME...IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT ILEANA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND NOT RESPOND
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 14.0N 105.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.3N 109.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 113.6W    90 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 119.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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