ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C WITHIN A DEVELOPING CDO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL AT T2.5. GIVEN THE NEW CDO AND CONTINUED BANDING FEATURES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 150 NMI ON THE NORTH SIDE...THOUGH LITTLE IN SITU DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE. ILEANA IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE GFS AND A WEAKER FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE NOGAPS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAUSE ILEANA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE VORTEX INITIALIZED WELL. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ILEANA TO POSSIBLY RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN -- VERY LOW WIND SHEAR...HIGH SSTS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE FEATURES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ILEANA IS PREDICTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER SSTS AND MORE STABLE AIR...SO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING THOUGH...IF ILEANA REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.3N 104.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 106.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.1N 108.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 110.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC