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Hurricane HECTOR


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 159N 1248W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 159N 1248W 50 80   8(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 159N 1248W 64 43  16(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
 24 167N 1267W 34 22  64(86)   6(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 167N 1267W 50  2  50(52)  10(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 167N 1267W 64  X  26(26)   8(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 36 176N 1286W 34  2  25(27)  40(67)   7(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 36 176N 1286W 50  X   4( 4)  27(31)   6(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 36 176N 1286W 64  X   1( 1)  13(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 48 184N 1301W 34  X   4( 4)  29(33)  17(50)   7(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 48 184N 1301W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 48 184N 1301W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 200N 1328W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  16(26)   3(29)   X(29)
 72 200N 1328W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 72 200N 1328W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 215N 1355W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 96 215N 1355W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 215N 1355W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 225N 1385W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 225N 1385W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 225N 1385W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     85      75      65      50      30      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC