Hurricane HECTOR

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
 
HECTOR'S OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES RECENTLY SHOW A FAINT EYE
BREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS AT 1515 UTC SHOWED A SMALL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIRMING A SUSPICION FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS SEEN IN CIMSS ANALYSES...AND
DRY STABLE AIR WHICH HAS INVADED THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT...IN BETWEEN
THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS OUR USUAL
OPERATIONAL PRACTICE FOR WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES OVER
COOLER WATERS. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKER DEMISE TOMORROW AFTER HECTOR
ENCOUNTERS SSTS LESS THAN 24C AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN
25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS.  
 
QUIKSCAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1500 UTC WERE VERY
HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING AN INITIAL MOTION...295/11. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MOST
MODELS CONTINUING ON A TRACK AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNAFFECTED BY A WEAK BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHILE THE NOGAPS BARRELS THE HURRICANE IN A NORTHWESTWARD
FASHION.  WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONE...TRENDING SOUTH STILL SEEMS TO
BE A GOOD IDEA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ON THE BASIS OF A
1421 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS GENERAL WIND STRUCTURE IS CARRIED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HECTOR'S LIFE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 18.3N 131.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN