Hurricane HECTOR

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
 
THE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THIS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS...WITH TOPS TO -80C SEEN EAST OF THE CENTER. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM TAFB...
AND REMAIN 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  BASED
ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 90 KT.  THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/11.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 125-145W DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT
TIME.  THE GFDN AND LBAR CALL FOR HECTOR TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER
THAT TIME...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE STORM REMAINS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HECTOR WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY 72 HR FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT...WITH THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS AND THE GFDL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

HECTOR SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM WITHIN
12 HR...AND MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THEREAFTER.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
CAUSE FASTER WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.  NONE OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HECTOR TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY
120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR DISSIPATION BY
THAT TIME.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 17.4N 129.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.9N 132.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 19.6N 133.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 20.3N 135.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N 137.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN