Hurricane HECTOR

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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006
 
AN EYE HAS PERIODICALLY BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH THE
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
85 KT.  A 1446Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 125 NM AT MOST IN THE NW QUADRANT AND TO 
75 NM AT MOST IN THE SW QUADRANT...WHICH IS SMALLER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.

CURRENT MOTION OF HECTOR CONTINUES AT A HEADING OF 290 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 12 KT.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME...IT
SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT WILL TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE NOGAPS AND
GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD ON TO TOO STRONG AND TOO LARGE A VORTEX
FOR TOO LONG.

HECTOR IS GOING TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN ABOUT A DAY.
HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS
MODEL TOO HIGH DUE TO ADJACENT STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SUGGESTS
VERTICAL SHEAR CLOSER TO 5 TO 10 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH
THREE DAYS.  DISSIPATION IS DELAYED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.7N 126.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N 128.6W    80 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N 131.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 138.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
 
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