Hurricane HECTOR

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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006

THE EYE OF HECTOR BECAME CLOUD FILLED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THE EYE HAS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AT THIS
TIME... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 85 KT...FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT. 
  
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD BE REACHING ITS 
PEAK INTENSITY SOON.  THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN 
STRENGTHENING THE HURRICANE TO ABOVE 90 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK HECTOR AT 82 AND 81 KT
RESPECTIVELY.  SINCE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WHY HECTOR
SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN FURTHER...THE FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY
TO 90 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFDL AND
SHIPS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/11.  HECTOR CONTINUES
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE
LEFT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 15.4N 123.2W    80 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W    50 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
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