Tropical Depression GILMA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006               
1500 UTC WED AUG 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 152N 1073W 34 19   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 12 152N 1073W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 152N 1073W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 157N 1087W 34  2  15(17)   5(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 24 157N 1087W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 157N 1087W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 163N 1100W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   4(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 163N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 163N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 172N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 48 172N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 48 172N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
 72 182N 1137W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   1(15)
 72 182N 1137W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 72 182N 1137W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 195N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 96 195N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 96 195N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 205N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
120 205N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 205N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
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