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Tropical Storm GILMA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006               
0300 UTC WED AUG 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   4(22)   1(23)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 151N 1068W 34 52   4(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 12 151N 1068W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 151N 1068W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 154N 1081W 34  5  30(35)   9(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 154N 1081W 50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 154N 1081W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 157N 1097W 34  X   7( 7)  25(32)   7(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 36 157N 1097W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 157N 1097W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 160N 1115W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  17(27)   8(35)   1(36)   X(36)
 48 160N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 48 160N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 175N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   4(23)   1(24)
 72 175N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 175N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 190N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)
 96 190N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 190N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 210N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
120 210N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 210N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      45      35      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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