Tropical Depression GILMA
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006
GILMA LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER ON
THE EAST SIDE AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT
BALANCED BY WARM SSTS. THEREAFTER...COOLING SSTS SHOULD FINISH OFF
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE
POSSIBILITY THAT GILMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST IF THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION..
CURRENTLY 295/7...DUE TO WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO WITH SOME ACCELERATION. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND FOLLOWS BAM
SHALLOW CLOSELY AFTER 2 DAYS ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 15.4N 107.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 15.8N 108.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.6N 110.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.6N 111.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
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