ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM FROM THE CENTER. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR HAVE DONE THEIR DAMAGE AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. STILL...WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C OR GREATER FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...NEW BURSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A DEPRESSION THROUGH 48 HOURS. IF NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS AND THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. IN FACT... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE SHOW JUST THAT. FABIO IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 275/14. UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL DEPTH FOR A LITTLE LONGER...THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 36 HOURS...ALBEIT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMPLY TURNS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 15.1N 132.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 15.6N 137.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.7N 140.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 15.7N 143.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 15.7N 148.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.7N 153.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC