ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 AFTER COMPLETELY DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS MORNING...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALBEIT DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE WEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS APPEARS IS HINDERING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TREND AND AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN LINE WITH THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...INCREASING STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RENDER THE CYCLONE CONVECTION-FREE AND THE FORECAST SHOWS DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION...THE SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC BUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS 280/14. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO IS EXPECTED STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BECOME SHALLOW UNTIL 48 HOURS AND THUS ALLOWS SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THEREAFTER...AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS BUT THOSE MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM QUICKER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.9N 131.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 133.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 15.3N 136.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.6N 138.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 141.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 16.0N 147.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 156.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC