Tropical Storm FABIO

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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006

CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...AND A CIRCULAR SHAPED CONVECTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...AS DEPICTED BY RECENT PASSIVE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN
3.0 OR 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT AS WELL. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE STORM...AND THIS INHIBITING FACTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER WHICH...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDL GUIDANCE CLOSELY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 14.7N 129.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 14.9N 131.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 15.2N 134.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 137.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.7N 140.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.0N 145.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N 155.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
 
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