Tropical Storm FABIO

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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
 
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS
IT DID THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3...ULTIMATELY TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/13...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 6 HOUR MOTION.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FABIO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 15.0N 127.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.7N 132.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.2N 137.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 147.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N 152.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
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