ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING HAS INCREASED IN EXTENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF THIS MORNING...WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL CHIMING IN AT 45 KT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE BUMPED UP TO 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME...WITH A STABLE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND DAY 3 LIKELY TO DECREASE THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11....WITH A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BEYOND DAY 3...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 15.0N 125.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 15.8N 130.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 16.2N 133.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 16.4N 135.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 150.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC