Tropical Storm FABIO

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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
 
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING HAS INCREASED IN EXTENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF THIS MORNING...WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL
CHIMING IN AT 45 KT.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
BUMPED UP TO 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME...WITH A STABLE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND INCREASED
VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND DAY 3 LIKELY TO DECREASE THE SYSTEM TO A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11....WITH A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BEYOND DAY 3...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 15.0N 125.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 15.8N 130.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 16.2N 133.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 16.4N 135.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 150.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
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