ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1411Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS FORMED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AND MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACES TEMPERATURES IN 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING LIKELY THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES. ALL MODELS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.2N 122.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.3N 123.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.9N 128.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.4N 130.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 145.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC