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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  5  24(29)   5(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34 25   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
LORETO         34 10   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 243N 1127W 34 90   3(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 12 243N 1127W 50 34   8(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 12 243N 1127W 64  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 257N 1140W 34 16  38(54)   3(57)   X(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 24 257N 1140W 50  X  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 24 257N 1140W 64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 265N 1152W 34  3  16(19)  10(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 36 265N 1152W 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 265N 1152W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 271N 1165W 34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 271N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 271N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 276N 1182W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 72 276N 1182W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 276N 1182W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     45      35      25      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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