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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  7   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LORETO         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 213N 1119W 34 83   5(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 213N 1119W 50 19   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 12 213N 1119W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 229N 1133W 34  9  39(48)   5(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 24 229N 1133W 50  X   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 229N 1133W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 243N 1150W 34  1   8( 9)  14(23)   4(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 243N 1150W 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 243N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 252N 1167W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 252N 1167W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 252N 1167W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 260N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 72 260N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 260N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     45      35      30      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC