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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 90   7(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
ISLA SOCORRO   50 54  20(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ISLA SOCORRO   64 15  18(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  3  11(14)  11(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 188N 1108W 34 93   5(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 188N 1108W 50 59  18(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 188N 1108W 64 19  13(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
 24 198N 1123W 34 16  68(84)   7(91)   X(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 198N 1123W 50  1  51(52)  13(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 24 198N 1123W 64  X  23(23)  10(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 36 208N 1137W 34  3  34(37)  35(72)   7(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 36 208N 1137W 50  X  10(10)  29(39)   7(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 36 208N 1137W 64  X   3( 3)  16(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 48 218N 1150W 34  1   8( 9)  30(39)  18(57)   7(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 48 218N 1150W 50  X   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 48 218N 1150W 64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 238N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  14(22)   2(24)   X(24)
 72 238N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 238N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 255N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 96 255N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 255N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     80      80      65      40      25       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC