ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 60 31(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ISLA SOCORRO 50 11 48(59) 5(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA SOCORRO 64 2 31(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 34 2 4( 6) 11(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 186N 1099W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 186N 1099W 50 66 15(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 12 186N 1099W 64 33 16(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 24 194N 1113W 34 36 50(86) 6(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 24 194N 1113W 50 2 50(52) 12(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 24 194N 1113W 64 X 27(27) 11(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 36 204N 1127W 34 3 37(40) 33(73) 7(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) 36 204N 1127W 50 X 8( 8) 31(39) 8(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) 36 204N 1127W 64 X 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 48 214N 1140W 34 1 7( 8) 32(40) 17(57) 6(63) X(63) X(63) 48 214N 1140W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) 48 214N 1140W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 72 235N 1170W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 2(23) X(23) 72 235N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 235N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 250N 1195W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 96 250N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 250N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 270N 1225W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 270N 1225W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 270N 1225W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 85 85 70 40 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC