ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 12 50(62) 9(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 21(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 190N 1090W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 190N 1090W 50 57 20(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
12 190N 1090W 64 29 16(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
24 197N 1105W 34 28 57(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
24 197N 1105W 50 1 49(50) 11(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63)
24 197N 1105W 64 X 26(26) 10(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
36 204N 1120W 34 3 38(41) 31(72) 6(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80)
36 204N 1120W 50 X 9( 9) 29(38) 6(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46)
36 204N 1120W 64 X 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
48 211N 1134W 34 1 8( 9) 32(41) 16(57) 5(62) X(62) X(62)
48 211N 1134W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28)
48 211N 1134W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
72 226N 1161W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 11(24) 2(26) X(26)
72 226N 1161W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
72 226N 1161W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 245N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
96 245N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 245N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 265N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 265N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 265N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 85 85 70 40 25 20
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC