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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   7( 9)   8(17)   4(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2   5( 7)   6(13)   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 12  50(62)   9(71)   1(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  21(22)   8(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   9( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 190N 1090W 34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 190N 1090W 50 57  20(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 190N 1090W 64 29  16(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
 24 197N 1105W 34 28  57(85)   6(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 197N 1105W 50  1  49(50)  11(61)   1(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 197N 1105W 64  X  26(26)  10(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
 36 204N 1120W 34  3  38(41)  31(72)   6(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 36 204N 1120W 50  X   9( 9)  29(38)   6(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 36 204N 1120W 64  X   3( 3)  16(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 48 211N 1134W 34  1   8( 9)  32(41)  16(57)   5(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 48 211N 1134W 50  X   1( 1)  12(13)  12(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 211N 1134W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 226N 1161W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  11(24)   2(26)   X(26)
 72 226N 1161W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 72 226N 1161W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 245N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 96 245N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 245N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 265N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 265N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 265N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     85      85      70      40      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC