ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 41(43) 17(60) 4(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 12(12) 12(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 188N 1085W 34 87 8(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 12 188N 1085W 50 45 21(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) 12 188N 1085W 64 16 12(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 24 195N 1101W 34 9 68(77) 9(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 24 195N 1101W 50 1 38(39) 13(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) 24 195N 1101W 64 X 18(18) 8(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 36 202N 1115W 34 1 31(32) 35(67) 10(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) 36 202N 1115W 50 X 6( 6) 27(33) 9(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) 36 202N 1115W 64 X 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 48 209N 1130W 34 1 5( 6) 29(35) 22(57) 9(66) X(66) X(66) 48 209N 1130W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33) 48 209N 1130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 72 223N 1157W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 19(34) 3(37) X(37) 72 223N 1157W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) 72 223N 1157W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 96 240N 1185W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 96 240N 1185W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 240N 1185W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 260N 1215W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 120 260N 1215W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 260N 1215W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 75 80 80 55 35 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC