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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   3( 4)   9(13)   5(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   5(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2  41(43)  17(60)   4(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X  12(12)  12(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   7(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 188N 1085W 34 87   8(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 188N 1085W 50 45  21(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 12 188N 1085W 64 16  12(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 24 195N 1101W 34  9  68(77)   9(86)   2(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 195N 1101W 50  1  38(39)  13(52)   2(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 24 195N 1101W 64  X  18(18)   8(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 36 202N 1115W 34  1  31(32)  35(67)  10(77)   2(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 36 202N 1115W 50  X   6( 6)  27(33)   9(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 36 202N 1115W 64  X   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 48 209N 1130W 34  1   5( 6)  29(35)  22(57)   9(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 48 209N 1130W 50  X   1( 1)   9(10)  16(26)   6(32)   1(33)   X(33)
 48 209N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 
 72 223N 1157W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)  19(34)   3(37)   X(37)
 72 223N 1157W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 72 223N 1157W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 240N 1185W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 96 240N 1185W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 240N 1185W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 260N 1215W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
120 260N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 260N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      80      80      55      35      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC