Tropical Storm EMILIA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 18(19) 25(44) 7(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 186N 1077W 34 76 9(85) 1(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87)
12 186N 1077W 50 18 13(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
12 186N 1077W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 193N 1092W 34 10 56(66) 12(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
24 193N 1092W 50 1 22(23) 12(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
24 193N 1092W 64 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
36 200N 1107W 34 1 24(25) 37(62) 10(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75)
36 200N 1107W 50 X 3( 3) 22(25) 10(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37)
36 200N 1107W 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
48 207N 1122W 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) 22(55) 11(66) X(66) X(66)
48 207N 1122W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30)
48 207N 1122W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
72 220N 1150W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 24(38) 6(44) X(44)
72 220N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16)
72 220N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 235N 1175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 1(20)
96 235N 1175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
96 235N 1175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 255N 1205W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
120 255N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 255N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 60 70 75 65 45 25
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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