Tropical Storm EMILIA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 13(34) 1(35) X(35)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 2(24) X(24)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
P VALLARTA 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 10(11) 2(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
MANZANILLO 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 9(30) 2(32) X(32)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 178N 1054W 34 49 18(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
12 178N 1054W 50 10 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
12 178N 1054W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 192N 1068W 34 1 51(52) 14(66) 2(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
24 192N 1068W 50 X 16(16) 10(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
24 192N 1068W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
36 203N 1087W 34 X 6( 6) 46(52) 13(65) 4(69) 1(70) X(70)
36 203N 1087W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32)
36 203N 1087W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
48 209N 1102W 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 25(51) 12(63) 1(64) X(64)
48 209N 1102W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 8(28) X(28) X(28)
48 209N 1102W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
72 223N 1126W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 25(41) 6(47) X(47)
72 223N 1126W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) X(17)
72 223N 1126W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
96 245N 1155W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 2(21)
96 245N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
96 245N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 265N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
120 265N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 265N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 55 65 75 70 50 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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